It’s run up big, so don’t chase. Look for entries around $3.8–4.4. If US-China tensions flare a bit, you might get lucky. Long term looks good. This move up was also with volume.
Just one item I wanted to bring to your attention.
"45X provides $0.07/watt for modules, $0.04/watt for cells. At full capacity (5GW modules + 5GW cells), T1 will generate $50-100M annually in transferable tax credits"
I believe you may have undercooked the potential impact of the Production Tax Credits.
5GW is 5 Billion watts.
G1 would be 5 Billion * $0.04/watt. or $200M
And by the time G2 is fully ramped and yielding $0.07/watt, that is an additional $350M in PTCs.
To be conservative, if 2028 is the first full year of production for both G1 and G2 that is $550M in PTCs.
It’s run up big, so don’t chase. Look for entries around $3.8–4.4. If US-China tensions flare a bit, you might get lucky. Long term looks good. This move up was also with volume.
Bought a little more $TE as mentioned yesterday when it hit 4.3
Good write up. Got in today after diluting. The only two other stocks I own are RKLB which I bought at $7 and $NBIS which I bought at $35.
This is stock number 3 and hopefully down the line I’ll be bragging (humbly) about buying at $3.50
I hope the same my man. Now that financing and dilution is out of the way, let the speculation and execution games begin
Great write up.
Just one item I wanted to bring to your attention.
"45X provides $0.07/watt for modules, $0.04/watt for cells. At full capacity (5GW modules + 5GW cells), T1 will generate $50-100M annually in transferable tax credits"
I believe you may have undercooked the potential impact of the Production Tax Credits.
5GW is 5 Billion watts.
G1 would be 5 Billion * $0.04/watt. or $200M
And by the time G2 is fully ramped and yielding $0.07/watt, that is an additional $350M in PTCs.
To be conservative, if 2028 is the first full year of production for both G1 and G2 that is $550M in PTCs.
I am always super conservative in my estimates. This way there is room for error.
Underpromise and over deliver
*I flipped the credits for Modules and Cells. But everything else should be fine.